Success Rate 60% Real or Fake?

[behonest]

I asked my friend Google what 60% of 10 is. Please see the attachments below for reference.

Google is wrong or something else is wrong?


Google Screenshot

60% of 10 combo

@GMS If you say you lack relations with npc Yarrmo, then Sir, I have spent 800+ MOR's in a premium shop to purchase rb items for crafting parchments. Also, I have 13% Mastro char, which is rb 1+, so I have done quests for passive points. What else do I need to make sure my 60% of 10 will be 6? Thanks for your time.

Video of Crafting Terran Parchments : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fPAEUV ... p=drivesdk

[[GM]Blade]

The guide website is a third party website and we have requested the web admin to make the required changes. It will be done soon hopefully.

[behonest]

The guide website is a third party website and we have requested the web admin to make the required changes. It will be done soon hopefully.

Can you please tell us what's actual success rate of parchments? 60% or something else? Thanks for your valuable reply and time.

[Gon]

Video of Crafting Terran Parchments : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fPAEUV ... p=drivesdk

Wow, out of 10 tries, only 4 were successful. GM should increase the success rate. RB items aren't dropping in Hatrel maps.

[Gon]

The guide website is a third party website and we have requested the web admin to make the required changes. It will be done soon hopefully.

Will they decrease the success rate, or will they make changes according to the success rate listed on the site?

[Goldenarrows]

Hi,

I think that in A3, like most games, the probability is based on a calculation based on RNG or Random Number Generator.

Success Probability is not based on actual number of tries. On each try a new probability is generated by the RNG... (@Gms correct me if I am wrong here!)

For example...we take a simple calculation to understand this. Actual calculation may differ according to our game.

Suppose we have an RNG which generates a Random Number (RN) between 1-100! Keeping the math simple...

SUCCESS RATE of an Item Option addition = 60% (constant and we assume it as 60)

1) RNG Generates any number between 1 - 60 (SUCCESS as RN is <= Success Rate of 60)
2) RNG Generates a number between 61 - 100 (FAILURE as RN is > 60 or the Success Rate)

Now if Maestro helps (@GM?) THEN?

1) The RN generated by the RNG will be compared with the SUCCESS RATE + 13 Maestro %age added to it = 73%
so even if the RN is 73 then also it will be SUCCESS because in this case the actual SUCCESS RATE, due to Maestro will be 73%

I hope that this provides a basic explanation of how probabilities are mostly calculated in a game.

Regards
Goldenarrows

[xiaobai]

In every article, there will be a beggar who is least qualified to speak but always comment on the all matter

[longlivetheking]

Thanks you for clearing @Goldenarrows
but does it means the success rate for crafting essences (which shows 90%) on website are 100% with maestro char?

[Dongchang]

Yes, The essence theoretically could not fail, because 90%(Guide) +13% (Maestro)= 103%. This is more than 100%, it could not fail under any circumstances, but the GM revealed that the website guide that states 90% is wrong. More experienced players will understand what I mean, the success rate of Lumina and Terran is lower than the 32% of DTU and Additional Defense, where it fails 3-4 times, but sometimes we can also get 3-4 in a row on the first try. I say this without fear of being wrong based on experience and using the law of comparison.

[[GM]Blade]

The website www.a3guide.com is designed for A3 India, which operates as a 1x rate official server. All values listed there reflect stock 1x configurations from the official server setup. However, RNG mechanics in Mania differ slightly from those in standard 1x servers.

For general crafting and combinations, the success rates shown on the guide site represent the base success rate.

For Mania-specific crafting and combinations, the success rates mentioned reflect the maximum possible success rate.

For instance, when crafting a Grimoire, the guide shows a 90% success rate. This represents the highest achievable chance, which includes bonuses from Maestro and NPC relations, but there is still a 10% chance of failure.

[Dongchang]

You are telling us that the guide (copied from A3 India) shows that 32% is the base success rate for DTU. Which can be calculated as = 32% + 13% maestro + NPC relation (% unknown) = 45%. But on the other hand, the Oblivion shard has different math, it gives us the maximum final value that can be obtained, so to calculate the base success rate the calculation would be as follows, in the case of the essence, 60% - 13% maestro - % NPC relation = 47% As I mentioned in the post above, Essence has a lower success rate than DTU.... I still have some doubts, the first is why the game doesn't follow a standard in the combination calculation guide? The second is how much is the % of the NPC relation on the combination? With all due respect,It is the player's right to have all the information about the percentages, to accurately calculate the % of the combination, players seek clarity and transparency about this information, because they are the most expensive and important combinations in the game, and there are still many doubts and inconsistencies, I hope we have all the necessary clarifications, thank you for your time...

[behonest]

The website www.a3guide.com is designed for A3 India, which operates as a 1x rate official server. All values listed there reflect stock 1x configurations from the official server setup. However, RNG mechanics in Mania differ slightly from those in standard 1x servers.

For general crafting and combinations, the success rates shown on the guide site represent the base success rate.

For Mania-specific crafting and combinations, the success rates mentioned reflect the maximum possible success rate.

For instance, when crafting a Grimoire, the guide shows a 90% success rate. This represents the highest achievable chance, which includes bonuses from Maestro and NPC relations, but there is still a 10% chance of failure.

I firmly request that you provide evidence to support your claim regarding maximum possible success rate. My video clearly disproves your statement. With a stated success rate of 60% plus an additional 13% from Mastro, which totals 73%, I still achieved only 4 out of 10.

Let’s set aside the issue of NPC relationships for now. Despite investing numerous MORs in premium items and buying and selling many G8s to enhance my relationship with Yarrmo, he still does not maintain a good rapport with me. It appears that this NPC is just greedy.

Even if we disregard those NPC relationships, 60% plus 13% equals 73%, yet my results indicate a maximum possible success rate of only 4 out of 10. If this is what you consider to be the maximum possible success rate? then I think many of us would strongly disagree with and reject this assertion.

I challenge you to clarify your statement regarding Mania-specific crafting and combinations. The success rates you mentioned should accurately reflect the maximum possible success rate. Thank you.

[[GM]Blade]

You are telling us that the guide (copied from A3 India) shows that 32% is the base success rate for DTU. Which can be calculated as = 32% + 13% maestro + NPC relation (% unknown) = 45%. But on the other hand, the Oblivion shard has different math, it gives us the maximum final value that can be obtained, so to calculate the base success rate the calculation would be as follows, in the case of the essence, 60% - 13% maestro - % NPC relation = 47% As I mentioned in the post above, Essence has a lower success rate than DTU.... I still have some doubts, the first is why the game doesn't follow a standard in the combination calculation guide? The second is how much is the % of the NPC relation on the combination? With all due respect,It is the player's right to have all the information about the percentages, to accurately calculate the % of the combination, players seek clarity and transparency about this information, because they are the most expensive and important combinations in the game, and there are still many doubts and inconsistencies, I hope we have all the necessary clarifications, thank you for your time...

That's right. Unfortunately, there's no standardized method for calculating these values, as they heavily depend on how things are implemented on each server.

NPC relations can provide up to a 15% bonus to the success rate at 30% full Town relation. However, there's a 50% chance that NPC relations will be ignored during a combination attempt, this too is influenced by RNG and the specific NPC relation level. As a result, the base success rate for combinations can vary.

[behonest]

players seek clarity and transparency about this information

I strongly advocate for your statement highlighting the necessity of transparency supported by valid proof from GM. It’s essential that we have clear insight into where our hard-earned money is going; making informed decisions is not just wise, but imperative for our financial well-being. Emphasizing openness and accountability can empower us all to invest with confidence.

[[GM]Blade]

With a stated success rate of 60% plus an additional 13% from Mastro, which totals 73%

Maximum is 60%. This includes NPC relations and maestro too.

I still achieved only 4 out of 10.

This is not how percentage based probability works.

Think of it like this. Every time you click "Combine," it's like rolling a 100-sided die. If the number is 73 or below, it's a success. If it's 74 or above, it fails. That roll happens independently for every single attempt. So even though you had 73% success, getting only 4 out of 10 is just bad luck, it happens. You could also get 9/10 on another day with the same rate. That’s the nature of RNG. The more attempts you make over time (like 100+), the closer your actual success rate will trend toward your expected rate. But in small samples like 10 tries, RNG can be very swingy.